UK unemployment hits 48-year low while real wages fall sharply
The economic inactivity rate, meanwhile, rose by 0.4 percentage points to a five-year high of 21.7%.
The Office for National Statistics attributed the change to a rise in long-term sickness designations and students leaving the jobs market. The increasing tightness of the labor market may fuel further inflationary pressure and cause headaches for the Bank of England.
Annual growth in real wages — taking into account inflation — excluding bonuses fell by 2.8% in the three months to the end of July.
“People will understandably be looking to their employers for help during the cost of living crisis while Andrew Bailey will be hoping that businesses don’t up salaries too high too quickly and compound inflation,” said Marcus Brookes, chief investment officer at Quilter Investors.
“However, the U.K. must brace for discontent amongst the public sector with strikes over pay continuing as budgets are stretched.”
– Elliot Smith
UBS plans to boost dividend; shares rise in pre-market
UBS shares were indicated 1.2% higher in pre-market activity after what ZKB analyst Michael Klien called surprise news.
European stocks were cautiously higher on Tuesday morning as global markets geared up for the latest reading of U.S. inflation.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 was up 0.3% in early trade, with food and beverage stocks adding 0.8% to lead gains as most sectors and major bourses inched into positive territory. Retail stocks slid 0.4%.
CNBC Pro: Want to invest in real estate? These REITs are among analysts’ favorites
Real estate investment trusts — or REITs — are coming back to the spotlight after a volatile year for many asset classes.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley and Citi highlight REITs from two sectors that they say could outperform the wider market, and remain resilient in a recession.
— Weizhen Tan
Fed actions this month could be ‘nonevent’ for asset prices, Ameriprise says
The upcoming September Federal Reserve meeting, where the central bank is expected to raise interest rates, is likely already priced into the market, according to Ameriprise chief market strategist Anthony Saglimbene.
“In our view, central bank actions this month are likely a nonevent for asset prices,” he wrote in a Monday note. “However, incoming economic data over the coming weeks and months and its influence on policy actions next year could play a much more significant role in shaping stock direction over the intermediate term.”
Markets now expect the Fed to hike rates by 0.75 percentage point, meaning that assets may not move much if that is the central bank’s decision. A consumer price index report Tuesday that’s in-line with expectations may also not move the needle.”
“Unless inflation figures last month changed substantially more than expected, including Wednesday’s update on the August Producer Price Index (PPI), we believe a 75 basis point hike from the Fed is essentially locked in at this point,” he said.
Relief rally is likely bear market bounce, Wells Fargo says
The recent relief rally in stocks is likely another bear market bounce and investors should position for more choppiness ahead, according to Wells Fargo.
“Year-do-date, the outperformance of defensive, high shareholder payout, high-quality and low-valuation stocks reminds investors of the hallmark of a bear market,” global portfolio and investment strategist Chao Ma wrote in a Monday note.
Such recoveries happen in nearly every bear market and many are quickly reversed, leaving investors with regrets, they added.
“Although it is difficult to predict the bottom of a bear market, in the past, market bottoms were typically preconditioned by over-pessimistic market sentiment and a sign of definitive improvement in the underlying economic or market issue,” Ma said. “We believe we are not there yet in either regard.”
In the meantime, Ma recommends investors look for defensive stocks with low volatility, high dividends and share repurchase yields. He also says investors should go for high quality names with profitability and leading market share and affordable market price.
U.S. stock futures rise ahead of Tuesday CPI report
U.S. stock futures were higher Monday night as Wall Street looks ahead to the August consumer price index report set to be released Tuesday morning. The report will give investors an update on the inflation situation in the U.S. and is one of the last pieces of data the Federal Reserve will see ahead of its September meeting.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 55 points, or 0.17%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.18% and 0.21%, respectively.